Expectations and the theory of macroeconomic policy: Some recent developments

This paper reviews recent developments in the theory of stabilization policies since the rational expectations revolution. The debate about the neutrality proposition is omitted, and attention is directed at the policy evaluation and the time-inconsistency propositions. It is argued that the open-loop rule of the Friedman type is justifiable only with neutrality, since the techniques of policy evaluation can take into account the restrictions implied by rational expectations. The game-theoretic analyzes by Robert Barro and Donald Gordon support the idea of rules rather than discretion in a novel way, but it is shown that a different reputation mechanism can lead to the “ideal” outcome which is not an equilibrium in the Barro-Gordon analysis.     

Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies

A fundamentals based monetary policy rule, which would be the optimal monetary policy without commitment when private agents have perfectly rational expectations, is unstable if in fact these agents follow standard adaptive learning rules. This problem can be overcome if private expectations are observed and suitably incorporated into the policy maker's optimal rule. These strong results extend to the case in which there is simultaneous learning by the policy maker and the private agents. Our findings show the importance of conditioning policy appropriately, not just on fundamentals, but also directly on observed household and firm expectations.     

Cost-efficient co-creation of knowledge intensive business services

The most significant difference between industrialization-driven product marketing and digitalization-driven service marketing can be seen in the definition of value creation, and the exchange (integration) of resources. Industrialization created efficiency in scale, whereas digitalization requires customer-oriented business models and value co-creational service processes. This research follows the value co-creational and system integrational views of service-dominant logic. We have explored how relative profitability can be increased through efficient service productization. Our approach is twofold, we have explored the commercialization of co-created services (the servitization of product-service systems) and the enhancement of service production by service processes. We have created service management framework for modular service delivery where company resources be linked to cost-efficient co-creation services.     

Platform configurations for local and private 5G networks in complex industrial multi-stakeholder ecosystems

Data and connectivity platforms play a crucial role in the digitalization of different sectors of our society. In complex industrial multi-stakeholder ecosystem contexts connectivity and data platforms are increasingly becoming converged, and private, vertical-specific local 5G networks are emerging. For this context, we depict and analyze alternative configurations for converging connectivity and data platforms and propose appropriate management actions for combining these platforms and achieving legitimacy. We examine a complex industrial multi-stakeholder ecosystem of a port and observe that in the considered case study, the convergence of connectivity and data platforms enhances digitalization and helps to create shared local information between stakeholders. The research identifies a set of regulatory challenges for local 5G networks in complex industrial multi-stakeholder ecosystems where the telecommunication and information technology-related regulations meet with vertical-specific regulations, leading to a complex environment in which to operate. As highly country-specific, these regulations can open new business opportunities or significantly slow down or even prevent a market opening to local private 5G networks for vertical-specific use.     

Nonparametric rank tests for event studies

Because stock prices are not normally distributed, the power of nonparametric rank tests dominate parametric tests in event study analyses of abnormal returns on a single day. However, problems arise in the application of nonparametric tests to multiple day analyses of cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) that have caused researchers to normally rely upon parametric tests. In an effort to overcome this shortfall, this paper proposes a generalized rank (GRANK) testing procedure that can be used on both single day and cumulative abnormal returns. Asymptotic distributions of the associated test statistics are derived, and their empirical properties are studied with simulations of CRSP returns. The results show that the proposed GRANK procedure outperforms previous rank tests of CARs and is robust to abnormal return serial correlation and event-induced volatility. Moreover, the GRANK procedure exhibits superior empirical power relative to popular parametric tests.     

Existence of adaptively stable sunspot equilibria near an indeterminate steady state

We examine the nonlinear model x_t=E_tF(x_t+1). Markov stationary sunspot equilibria (SSEs) exist near an indeterminate steady state, , provided . Despite the importance of indeterminacy in macroeconomics, earlier results have not provided conditions for the existence of adaptively stable SSEs near an indeterminate steady state. We show that there exist Markov SSEs near x? that are E-stable, and therefore locally stable under adaptive learning, if .     

Policy change and learning in the RBC model

What is the impact of surprise and anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations? We examine this issue using the standard stochastic real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes. Agents combine knowledge about future policy with econometric forecasts of future wages and interest rates. Dynamics under learning can have large impact effects and a gradual hump-shaped response, and tend to be prominently characterized by oscillations not present under rational expectations. These fluctuations reflect periods of excessive optimism or pessimism, followed by subsequent corrections.     

‘The True and Fair View’ of Executive Stock Option Valuation

ABSTRACT

We compare the market values of executive stock option (ESO) trades with their Black & Scholes (1973) model values calculated following the major accounting standards, SFAS No. 123r and IFRS2. Our results show major underpricing compared to the traditional B&S method values. This should be considered while applying SFAS No. 123r and IFRS2 for estimating fair values. Especially time to expiration has a major influence on the undervaluation suggesting that the possibility of a change in corporate structure lowers the cost of ESOs to shareholders.     

Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results

Drawing upon recent contributions in the statistical literature, we present new results on the convergence of recursive, stochastic algorithms which can be applied to economic models with learning and which generalize previous results. The formal results provide probability bounds for convergence which can be used to describe the local stability under learning of rational expectations equilibria in stochastic models. Economic examples include local stability in a multivariate linear model with multiple equilibria and global convergence in a model with a unique equilibrium.